Researchers have concluded that average temperatures across the globe could be abnormally high between 2018 and 2022. The most important factor underlying this estimation is the multiplication of “extreme heat events” at the surface of the earth and water.
The study was conducted before the heat waves that led to the record temperatures that we’ve endured this year. But the unusually hot weather was correctly predicted by researchers who estimated for 2018 a high probability of heat abnormalities relative to the global warming effects. The study, published in the journal Nature Communications, was received for publication in January.
The new technique used o reach these conclusions is called Procast (Probabilistic forecast). It attempts to rationalize the chaotic behavior of systems, such as the Earth’s climate. The process involves collecting information from previous changes in a particular state of the system in order to calculate the probability chances of transitions to new future states. A retrospective test of the method accurately predicted the discontinuity (hiatus) of global warming from 1998 to 2013.
Scientists led by Dr. Florian Sevellec, of the Physical and Space Oceanography Laboratory at the University of Brest, France, noted: “What we found is that for the next five years or so, there is a high likelihood of an anomalously warm climate compared to anomalously cold”
The researcher believes that this will temporarily accentuate the long-term warming trend. The next warm period is associated with a higher probability of extreme temperatures to extremes. The canonical events affecting the surface of the water can increase tropical storm activity. According to NASA, 2016 was the warmest year on record, followed by 2017, 2015 and 2014.
